Preseason Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#122
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.8#258
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#117
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#143
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.4% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.4% 16.7% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.9% 5.7% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.3 11.0 12.2
.500 or above 59.4% 70.0% 43.9%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 70.4% 56.0%
Conference Champion 10.7% 13.1% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 3.5% 7.5%
First Four1.6% 2.0% 0.9%
First Round12.6% 15.7% 8.1%
Second Round3.9% 5.1% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Neutral) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 35 - 47 - 11
Quad 46 - 113 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 151   East Carolina W 74-72 59%    
  Dec 12, 2020 28   @ Purdue L 61-73 14%    
  Dec 15, 2020 52   @ Saint Louis L 65-75 19%    
  Dec 19, 2020 130   Ball St. W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 22, 2020 325   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-62 94%    
  Mar 08, 2021 64   @ Northern Iowa L 65-74 23%    
  Mar 08, 2021 76   @ Loyola Chicago L 63-71 26%    
  Mar 08, 2021 117   @ Bradley L 68-71 38%    
  Mar 08, 2021 135   Missouri St. W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 08, 2021 144   Drake W 73-68 66%    
  Mar 08, 2021 155   Valparaiso W 75-69 68%    
  Mar 08, 2021 168   Southern Illinois W 68-61 71%    
  Mar 08, 2021 188   Illinois St. W 74-66 74%    
  Mar 08, 2021 261   Evansville W 75-63 84%    
  Mar 09, 2021 64   Northern Iowa L 68-71 42%    
  Mar 09, 2021 76   Loyola Chicago L 66-68 45%    
  Mar 09, 2021 117   Bradley W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 09, 2021 135   @ Missouri St. L 70-72 44%    
  Mar 09, 2021 144   @ Drake L 70-71 47%    
  Mar 09, 2021 155   @ Valparaiso L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 09, 2021 168   @ Southern Illinois W 65-64 52%    
  Mar 09, 2021 188   @ Illinois St. W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 09, 2021 261   @ Evansville W 72-66 68%    
Projected Record 12 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.2 1.1 0.3 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.3 3.2 1.5 0.1 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.3 5.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.3 2.0 5.2 4.4 1.4 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.4 2.2 5.5 3.7 0.8 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.9 1.9 0.4 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.8 1.4 0.2 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 5.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 4.6 6.6 8.4 9.2 10.7 11.0 10.4 9.8 8.1 6.2 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 94.7% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 67.6% 3.1    1.9 1.1 0.1
14-4 40.0% 2.5    1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.6% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 6.5 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 53.5% 46.5% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 94.0% 53.4% 40.6% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 87.2%
16-2 2.3% 75.9% 38.9% 37.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 60.6%
15-3 4.5% 52.2% 30.1% 22.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 31.6%
14-4 6.2% 38.4% 27.4% 11.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 3.8 15.2%
13-5 8.1% 24.5% 20.9% 3.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.1 4.6%
12-6 9.8% 13.7% 13.1% 0.5% 12.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.5 0.6%
11-7 10.4% 9.3% 9.2% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.1%
10-8 11.0% 4.7% 4.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.5
9-9 10.7% 2.9% 2.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.4
8-10 9.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.0
7-11 8.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-12 6.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.6
5-13 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 13.4% 9.9% 3.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.9 3.6 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 86.6 3.9%